Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
